BCS Watch

BCS Watch

Football

BCS Watch

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It is time for this week’s edition of this year’s BCS Watch.  The second BCS standings came out Sunday night and the BCS watch is alive and well for the Tigers.  Each week TheClemsonInsider.com will take a look at the battle for the Bowl Championship Series.

After week nine the ACC has three ranked in the top eight of the BCS Rankings.  Florida State is No. 3, Miami No. 6 and Clemson No. 8.  Florida State was jumped this week by Oregon even though they whipped NC State.

Unless things change dramatically down the stretch it looks like the two teams that will play in the BCS Championship Game will be the champions of the ACC, the SEC, the PAC 12 or Ohio State.  Baylor made a major jump to No. 5 in the BCS, but will have a hard time moving into the top two.

Unless Florida State has a major collapse down the stretch the Tigers will be hoping for an At-large bid to the BCS as they will not win the Atlantic Division this year.  If Clemson wins out the only question will be which BCS Bowl they play in, not if they will make one.  If the Noles defeat Miami as expected this week the Tigers will likely move up another spot in the BCS Rankings next week if they can defeat Virginia on the road.  By the time the South Carolina game comes around the Tigers could be back near the top five in the BCS.

Go to this link to see the BCS selection procedures.

Bowl Hosts

Unless they qualify for the National Championship Game the champions of these conference are contractually committed to host the following bowls

ACC – Orange Bowl

Big Ten – Rose

Big 12 – Fiesta

PAC 12 – Rose

SEC – Sugar

 

Selection Order

1. The top two teams in the final BCS standings will meet in the BCS National Championship game

2. If a bowl loses a conference champion to the BCS Championship Game they will be able to select a replacement before any other selections are made.  If two bowls lose their host team to the BCS Championship Game the bowl with the No. 1 BCS team will get first selection.  A bowl selecting a replacement team can not select a host team for another bowl.

3. Once the replacement teams are set and the bowl host teams are in place the bowls will fill the remaining slots by selecting in the following order:

Orange first, Sugar second, Fiesta third

At Large Bids

Remember a conference can not have more than two teams in the BCS.

Clemson is positioned well for an at-large bid if they can win out.  It is possible they could still get a bid if they finish 10-2 with a loss at South Carolina, but that is not very likely.  The Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl are the most likely BCS destinations for the Tigers if they can win out.

Notre Dame will need to win out to have a shot at the BCS this season.  There could be another mid-major team in the BCS this year.  If Fresno State wins out.  They are already in the top 16 of the BCS standings.  They will get a bid if they are in the top 12 or if they are in the top 16 and finish ahead of one of the champions of the automatic conferences.

Right now it looks unlikely that Ohio State will make the title game unless two of the three teams in front of them lose.  That means Ohio State is likely headed to the Rose Bowl.  If Oregon wins out and is selected for the BCS Title game the Rose Bowl will be able to pick an At-large team to replace the PAC 12 champion.  Stanford would have at least two losses if Oregon were to win out.  They PAC 12 would still likely select a two loss Stanford team if they are in the BCS top ten.

If the Noles can’t jump Oregon they will head to the Orange Bowl if they win the ACC.  The Orange Bowl gets the first selection this year after the title participants are replaced.  If the Noles make the title game and the Tigers win out we could very easily see Clemson back in the Orange Bowl.

The Sugar Bowl will have one open spot and possibly two if Alabama makes the title game.  If the Tide goes to the title game the Sugar Bowl will get to replace the SEC Champion spot before the other at large selections are made.  It looks very likely that if Bama wins the SEC that all of the other SEC teams will have at least two losses, possibly three.  Would the Sugar Bowl select an SEC team to replace their champion if all the other teams have two or more losses or would they grab another at large team?  Would the Sugar Bowl select a two loss Clemson team over a three loss SEC team?

The Big 12 winner will head to the Fiesta Bowl.  The Fiesta Bowl gets the last selection so this is where a mid-major would likely land if they make the BCS this season.

 

 

The Contenders

TCI breaks down the BCS contenders and long shots from each conference:

ACC

Serious Contenders

Florida State 7-0 (Nov. 2 vs. Miami, Nov. 30 at Florida)

Clemson 7-1 (Nov. 30 at South Carolina)

Miami 7-0 (Nov. 2 at FSU, Nov. 9 vs. Virginia Tech)

Virginia Tech 6-2 (Nov. 9 at Miami)

 

SEC

Serious Contenders

Alabama 8-0 (Nov. 9 vs. LSU, Nov. 16 at Miss. State, Nov. 30 at Auburn)

Missouri 7-1 (Nov. 23 at Ole Miss, Nov. 30 Texas A&M)

South Carolina 6-2 (Oct. 19 at Tennessee, Oct. 26 at Missouri, Nov. 16 vs. Florida)

LSU 7-2 (Nov. 9 at Alabama, Nov. 23 vs. Texas A&M)

Texas A&M 6-2 (Nov. 23 at LSU, Nov. 30 at Missouri)

 

Contenders

Georgia 4-3 (Nov. 2 vs. Florida, Nov. 16 at Auburn)

Florida 4-3 (Oct. 19 at Missouri, Nov. 2 vs. Georgia, Nov. 16 at South Carolina)

 

Big 12

Serious Contenders

Baylor 7-0 (Nov. 7 vs. Oklahoma, Nov. 16 vs. Texas Tech, Nov. 23 at Okl. State, Dec. 7 vs Texas)

Texas Tech 7-1 (Nov. 2 vs. Okl. State, Nov. 16 vs. Baylor, Nov. 28 at Texas)

Oklahoma 7-1 (Nov. 7 at Baylor, Dec. 7 at Okl. State)

Contenders

Texas 5-2 (Nov. 16 vs. Okl. State, Nov. 28 vs. Texas Tech, Dec. 7 at Baylor)

Oklahoma State 6-1 (Nov. 2 at Texas Tech, Nov. 16 at Texas, Nov. 23 vs. Baylor, Dec. 7 vs. Oklahoma)

 

Pac-12

Serious Contenders

Oregon 8-0 (Nov. 7 at Stanford, Nov. 29 vs. Oregon State)

Stanford 6-1 (Nov. 7 Oregon, Nov. 30 vs. Notre Dame)

Contenders

Arizona State 5-2 (Nov. 9 at Utah, Nov. 16 vs. Oregon State, Nov. 23 at UCLA)

Oregon State 6-2 (Oct. 26 vs. Stanford, Nov. 23 vs. Washington, Nov. 29 at Oregon)

UCLA 5-2 (Nov. 15 vs. Washington)

 

Independents/Mid Majors

Notre Dame gets automatic bid if they are in the  top 8 of the final BCS rankings

Winners of Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West or Sun Belt earn automatic bid if they are in final 12 of BCS rankings or finish in top 16 of BCS rankings and ahead of an AQ conference champion

Contenders

Notre Dame 6-2 (Oct. 19 vs. Southern Cal, Nov. 30 at Stanford)

Fresno State 7-0 (Nov. 2 vs. Nevada, Nov. 29 at San Jose St.)

Northern Illinois 8-0 (Nov. 13 vs. Ball State, Nov. 20 at Toledo)

 

Big Ten

Serious Contenders

Ohio State 8-0 (Nov. 30 at Michigan)

Contenders

Michigan 6-1 (Nov. 2 at Michigan State, Nov. 9 vs. Nebraska, Nov. 16 at Northwestern, Nov. 30 vs. Ohio State)

Michigan State 7-1 (Nov. 2 vs. Michigan, Nov. 16 at Nebraska, Nov. 23 at Northwestern)

Nebraska 5-2 (Nov. 2 vs. Northwestern, Nov. 9 at Michigan, Nov. 16 vs. Michigan State)

Wisconsin 5-2 (Nov. 2 at Iowa, Nov. 23 at Minnesota)

 

American Athletic

Serious Contenders

Central Florida 6-1 (Nov. 9 vs. Houston)

Louisville 7-1 (Dec. 5 at Cincinnati)

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