BCS Watch

BCS Watch

Football

BCS Watch

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It is time for this week’s edition of TCI’s BCS Watch.  The sixth BCS standings came out Sunday night and the BCS watch is alive and well for the Tigers.  Each week The Clemson Insider will take a look at the battle for the Bowl Championship Series.

After week 13 the ACC has two teams ranked in the top six of the BCS Rankings.  Florida State remains at  No. 2 while Clemson moved up one spot to No. 6.

Alabama and Florida State are the front runners to play in the BCS Title game.  Florida State has now won the Atlantic Division and look to have an easy path to Pasadena.  It doesn’t look like any decision will be made on whether to charge Winston before the final BCS rankings come out so that does not appear to be a factor.

Oregon fell out of BCS contention by getting whipped at Stanford.  Baylor also hurt their BCS chances by losing at Oklahoma State.

Clemson is left to battle for an At-large BCS bid.  The Tigers remain in strong position.  If Florida State makes the BCS Title game Clemson appears to be heading to the Orange Bowl unless things change  dramatically in the final two weeks.

Go to this link to see the BCS selection procedures.

Bowl Hosts

Unless they qualify for the National Championship Game the champions of these conference are contractually committed to host the following bowls

ACC – Orange Bowl

Big Ten – Rose

Big 12 – Fiesta

PAC 12 – Rose

SEC – Sugar

 

Selection Order

1. The top two teams in the final BCS standings will meet in the BCS National Championship game

2. If a bowl loses a conference champion to the BCS Championship Game they will be able to select a replacement before any other selections are made.  If two bowls lose their host team to the BCS Championship Game the bowl with the No. 1 BCS team will get first selection.  A bowl selecting a replacement team can not select a host team for another bowl.

3. Once the replacement teams are set and the bowl host teams are in place the bowls will fill the remaining slots by selecting in the following order:

Orange first, Sugar second, Fiesta third

At Large Bids

Remember a conference can not have more than two teams in the BCS.

Clemson is positioned well for an at-large bid at this time.  It appears the Orange Bowl is ready to select the Tigers to fill Florida State’s spot if the Noles go to the title game.  There is still an outside chance the Tigers could land in the Sugar Bowl if things fell the right way.

Northern Illinois is in position to make the BCS for the second year in a row.  The computers currently have them ranked No. 7 and they currently stand at No. 14 in the BCS.  They will get a bid if they are in the top 12 or if they are in the top 16 and finish ahead of one of the champions of the automatic conferences.  Right now they are ranked ahead of Central Florida who comes in at 19th.

Sugar Bowl

The Sugar Bowl would have two positions available if Alabama wins out and goes to the BCS Championship.  The Sugar Bowl would get the first pick to replace No. 1 Alabama.  If Florida State is the other team in the title game the Sugar Bowl would need permission to pick another ACC team from the Orange Bowl.  The Sugar Bowl would then get the second  selection after the replacement teams were chosen.

With Auburn’s miracle win over Georgia it looks likely that the Sugar Bowl would pick an SEC team to replace Alabama if they head to the title game.  Auburn and Missouri look like the contenders for the Sugar Bowl to replace Alabama.

The chances of Clemson landing in the Sugar Bowl appear to be going down.  If Florida State doesn’t make  the BCS title game there is still a scenario that could land the Tigers in the Sugar but that appears to be unlikely at this point.

Orange Bowl

Florida State is No. 2 right now and will head to the BCS title game if they can win out.  The Orange Bowl right now would get the second selection as they chose a replacement for Florida State.  They would need permission from the Sugar Bowl to select an SEC team if Bama also goes to the title game.  With Miami losing again this week they will likely be out of the mix for the Orange Bowl.  Once the replacement teams are named the Orange Bowl gets the first selection.  The Orange Bowl could be in position for the best bowl matchup outside of the title game.

Right now the Orange Bowl appears to be the most likely BCS destination for Clemson.  The Orange Bowl is very likely to pick Clemson to replace Florida State if they go to the title game.  Even if the Tigers lose to South Carolina the Orange Bowl appears to be ready to select the Tigers as long as they remain in the top 14 of the BCS rankings.

Rose Bowl

It looks like the two host conferences for the Rose Bowl may be left out of the BCS Title game.  Ohio State is ready to move into the title game if Florida State or Alabama lose down the stretch.

Oregon’s loss to Arizona has eliminated the Ducks from contention.

If Florida State and Alabama win out the Rose Bowl will include the champions from the PAC 12 and the Big Ten.  Right now it looks likely that Ohio State will meet either Stanford or Arizona State in the Rose Bowl.  Ohio State will need to get past Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship.

Fiesta Bowl

The Big 12 winner will head to the Fiesta Bowl unless things change dramatically.  With Oklahoma State’s victory over Baylor they are now positioned to go to the Fiesta Bowl.

The Fiesta Bowl gets the last selection so this is where a mid-major would likely land if they make the BCS this season.  If a mid-major does not make the BCS the Fiesta would likely end up with the winner of the new American Athletic Conference.  Right now it looks like Northern Illinois would land in the Fiesta Bowl.

 

The Contenders

TCI breaks down the BCS contenders and long shots from each conference:

ACC

Serious Contenders

Florida State 11-0 (Nov. 30 at Florida, ACC Championship Game)

Clemson 10-1 (Nov. 30 at South Carolina)

SEC

Serious Contenders

Alabama 11-0 (Nov. 30 at Auburn)

Missouri 10-1 (Nov. 30 Texas A&M)

Auburn 10-1 (Nov. 30 vs. Alabama)

 

Contenders

South Carolina 9-2 (Nov. 30 vs. Clemson)

 

Big 12

Serious Contenders

Baylor 9-1 (Nov. 30 at TCU, Dec. 7 vs Texas)

Oklahoma State 10-1 (Dec. 7 vs. Oklahoma)

 

Pac-12

Serious Contenders

Arizona State 9-2 (Nov. 30 vs Arizona)

Stanford 9-2 (Nov. 30 vs. Notre Dame)

 

Contenders

Oregon 9-2 (Nov. 29 vs. Oregon State)

 

Independents/Mid Majors

Notre Dame gets automatic bid if they are in the  top 8 of the final BCS rankings.

Winners of Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West or Sun Belt earn automatic bid if they are in final 12 of BCS rankings or finish in top 16 of BCS rankings and ahead of an AQ conference champion

Contenders

Fresno State 10-0 (Nov. 29 at San Jose St., Mountain West Championship)

Northern Illinois 11-0 (Nov. 20 at Toledo, Nov. 26 vs. Western Michigan)

 

Big Ten

Serious Contenders

Ohio State 11-0 (Nov. 30 at Michigan, Big Ten Championship)

Michigan State 10-1 (Nov. 30 vs. Minnesota,  Big Ten Championship)

 

Contenders

Wisconsin 9-2 (Nov. 30 vs. Penn State)

 

American Athletic

Serious Contenders

Central Florida 9-1 (Nov. 29 vs. South Florida,  Dec. 7 at SMU)

Louisville 10-1 (Dec. 5 at Cincinnati)

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