NCAA Baseball Tournament Projections (May 24)

NCAA Baseball Tournament Projections (May 24)

Baseball

NCAA Baseball Tournament Projections (May 24)

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As Clemson awaits a probable postseason bid, The Clemson Insider releases our projections for the 2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament.

 

For a quick review, the field is made up of 64 teams split into 16 regional sites. The 64 teams consist of 31 automatic bids and 33 at-large selections.

We will break the bracket down into hosts, one-bid leagues, potential one-bid leagues, in the field, and then the bubble. Check back each day as we update the bubble and projections as conference tournament progress before releasing our entire field (with locations) on Monday morning. 

Hosts (16 teams)

Arkansas East Carolina Georgia Georgia Tech
Louisville Miami (FL) Mississippi State NC State
Oklahoma State Oregon State Stanford Texas Tech
UCLA UC Santa Barbara Vanderbilt West Virginia
Teams in BOLD have won the automatic bid.

 

One-Bid Leagues (17 teams)

America East Atlantic 10 Big South Colonial
Horizon Harvard MAAC MAC
Florida A&M Northeast Ohio Valley Army
SoCon Southland Summit Southern
WAC
Teams in BOLD have won the automatic bid.

 

Potential One-Bid Leagues (5 teams)

Atlantic Sun Jacksonville (winners bracket)
Liberty (in losers bracket/potential at-large team)
Big East Creighton (winners bracket/at-large lock)
Mountain West Fresno State (winners bracket/likely at-large team)
Sun Belt Georgia Southern (winners bracket)
Texas State (eliminated/potential at-large team)
West Coast BYU (losers bracket/potential at-large team)

 

In The Field (18 teams)

Arizona State Auburn Baylor California
Clemson Connecticut Dallas Baptist Florida Atlantic
Illinois Illinois State Indiana Indiana State
LSU Nebraska North Carolina Ole Miss
Tennessee Texas A&M
Teams in BOLD have won the automatic bid.

 

Bubble IN (8 spots)

Team Record Conf RPI SOS Road Q1 Q2
57 Michigan 39-17 17-8 41 130 12-11 5-10 5-2
58 Duke 31-24 16-15 44 21 10-9 9-14 6-6
59 Florida State 35-21 17-14 53 59 7-10 8-11 6-7
60 Florida 33-24 13-18 26 3 6-12 13-20 8-1
61 Houston 32-24 12-14 42 32 12-8 8-11 8-5
62 UC Irvine 36-16 16-6 47 148 15-11 0-5 7-6
63 UCF 35-21 12-14 45 50 11-8 7-9 9-6
64 Missouri 34-22-1 13-17-1 30 26 11-12-1 10-17-1 4-0

 

Bubble OUT (8 teams)

Team Record Conf RPI SOS Road Q1 Q2
65 Southern Miss 36-19 22-10 51 92 11-10 3-5 6-2
66 Arizona 30-24 13-14 46 28 8-14 3-16 12-2
67 Texas State 36-20 20-12 52 89 14-8 4-4 8-5
68 Liberty 38-19 16-9 50 121 12-13 4-3 5-6
69 Boston College 31-26 14-18 55 48 15-13 8-14 7-6
70 Wake Forest 31-26 15-17 54 40 9-15 7-12 7-7
71 Oklahoma 33-23 11-15 43 54 15-11 4-12 14-6
72 Virginia 32-24 14-18 48 31 9-9 8-16 6-5

 

Bubble Notes

Compared to most years there is an extremely soft bubble which means one win or loss could shift a team multiple spots as the metrics change.
Key components that the selection committee will look at include: Conference Record, RPI, SOS (Strength of Schedule), Road Record, Quad 1 records (teams ranked 1-50), and Quad 2 records (teams ranked 51-100). All metrics are as of 11:00AM on Friday, May 24.
Duke, Florida, Houston, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas State, Virginia, and Wake Forest have completed their seasons.
Florida State only has one remaining pool play game while Boston College has advanced to the ACC Semifinals. 
Arizona and UC Irvine play in conferences that do not hold tournaments so they will be completing their seasons with three-game series this weekend.
Southern Miss is in the winner’s bracket of the C-USA Tournament and most likely needs at least one more win to make the field.
Michigan, Liberty, and UCF are each in the losers brackets of their respective conference tournaments. Michigan and UCF most likely need one more win to make the field, while Liberty would need to win at least two games. 

 

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