Okay, before all the analysis and the reasons for this and for that as everyone begins to breakdown this coming Saturday’s ACC Championship Game between top ranked Clemson and No. 8 North Carolina, here is the only thing that really matters. If Clemson wins the turnover battle it will win the ACC Championship. If it loses it, then it will not. It is going to be that simple.
The Tigers are the better team. They have the better offense, the better defense, better athletes and they have Deshaun Watson at quarterback. But Clemson has turned the football over 10 times in the last three games and has lost the turnover battle six times this season altogether.
Those turnovers allowed Syracuse, Wake Forest and South Carolina to stay closer than the Tigers would have liked.
Like Clemson, the Tar Heels have not been as good as they have been in weeks past when it comes to taking care of the football. In the last two games, they have turned the football over six times.
“We know that in the last couple of games we’ve turned it over six times now, and because of that it made those games close,” North Carolina head coach Larry Fedora said. “We know we’re going to have to do a much better job of that on offense, and then on defense, we’ve got to create some more takeaways.
“That’s going to be another key factor if we’re going to be successful.”
Yes, the Tar Heels have won 11 straight games and they deserve to be in the ACC Championship Game. They have had a great season. But let’s really look at how they got here.
Their best win in the regular season came at Pittsburgh, a Panthers team that finished 8-4. That’s not bad, but it only gets worse from there. Their win over NC State this weekend is perhaps the next best win, but the Wolfpack finished the year 7-5.
UNC also humbled Duke (7-5) and Miami (8-4), but the Blue Devils lost four straight games before beating Wake Forest last week, and while the Hurricanes have turned things around at the end of the season, it is still hard to get past the fact they were outscored 117-21 combined against Clemson and North Carolina.
The Tar Heels other wins have come against Virginia Tech (6-6), Virginia (4-4), Wake Forest (3-9), Georgia Tech (3-9) and Illinois (5-7). They also have two win against FCS teams – Delaware (4-7) and North Carolina A&T (9-2).
“I will say this will be the best defense we have faced this year and this will be the best offense we have faced this year,” Fedora said. “For both sides of the ball, we are going to have to play extremely well.
“There is a reason they’re the number one team in the country. They are ranked above everybody else because everybody feels like they are the best team in the country. We understand that. We have to do a great job of preparing and we have to play an error-free game.”
North Carolina also benefited this year from a regular season that did not include playing Clemson or No. 9 Florida State, arguably the two best teams in the conference.
Offensively, Clemson ranks 14th nationally in total offense (502.5 ypg) and 15th in scoring offense (37.9 ppg). On the defensive side of the ball, despite having another off week in a win over South Carolina, the Tigers still rank seventh nationally in total defense (288.5) and 16th in scoring defense (18.8).
Yes, North Carolina has improved on defense and it is much better than it was last year when the Tigers beat the Tar Heels, 50-35, at Death Valley. But they’re still not good. They still give up and ton of yards in the running game (208.3) which ranks 13th in the ACC. They get little pressure on the quarterback, just 23 sacks, which ranks ninth in the ACC.
They have limited the big plays in the passing game and they have forced turnovers. But the best offensive football team they have faced this entire season is Duke, who ranks third in the ACC in total yards but it is just 42nd nationally.
North Carolina reminds me of a really, really good MAC team. They are loaded on offense with a really athletic quarterback and a set of skill players that can match anyone in the country. But on defense, they lack quality talent, which is masked with a lot of blanket coverages, and relying on the opponent to eventually make a mistake.
“Offensively we’ve got to take care of the football,” Fedora said. “We have got to take care of the football. That’s going to be our number one priority, and then defensively we’ve got to create some takeaways. We have got to limit some possessions for them, and that’s going to be very, very important to our success.”
That’s going to be the only key to their success. So it comes down to this. If Clemson does not beat Clemson, then there is no way North Carolina is going to beat Clemson.