Last week, six different Clemson baseball players were drafted in the Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft. One of them—left-handed pitcher Pat Krall—has already announced his intention to return to school for the 2017 campaign. The other five are about to go into different situations that will offer varying levels of opportunity to rise through the minor leagues toward the majors.
Here, we will examine each of those situations. We will take a look at each minor league system, including a breakdown of each organization’s commitment to development and its track record of success. We will also use the KATOH system created by Chris Mitchell of Fangraphs.com. His system projects a player’s chances of making it to the major leagues and that player’s projected big league wins above replacement prior to age 27 based on an analysis of the player’s performance in college.
C Chris Okey, Cincinnati Reds (2nd Round, 43rd Overall)
The Reds are arguably the best organization in baseball at developing catching talent. At one point last season, ten percent of the starting catchers in baseball came up through the Cincinnati farm system. That’s good news for Okey, a player who scouts have labeled a solid player without any standout strengths.
KATOH puts a fairly low ceiling on Okey, giving him a 29 percent chance of making it to the big leagues and projecting him to be worth 0.9 wins in his early career. Essentially, that would make him a backup catcher at the MLB level at best that is likely to spend a good bit of time at AAA during his prime.
Cincinnati doesn’t possess a ton of great prospects at catcher right now. Tucker Barnhart is starting for the Reds right now, but that’s only because young stud Devin Mesoraco is having a second consecutive injury-riddled season. The top catching prospect in the organization is Tyler Stephenson, the 11th overall pick in the 2015 draft who is currently in low-A and is still probably three or four years away from getting to the big leagues.
Stephenson is among the Reds’ top 5-7 prospects overall, depending on which evaluation service you prefer. Baseball America has him just inside its list of top 100 prospects in all of baseball. It seems the Reds are committed to making Stephenson a priority, meaning Okey will need to contend with him—especially since both players will probably have similar timelines. Still, the path has minimal resistance for a top-40 draft pick with three years playing college ball at the highest level.
LHP Alex Bostic, San Francisco Giants (10th Round, 305th Overall)
The Giants have a decent farm system right now, but that could change at any time. Injuries at the big league level have caused the front office to explore trading for a big-name bat, which could mean further depleting the reserves of an organization that is already without excess talent waiting in the wings.
Since Bostic projects most favorably as a lefty reliever, we’ll discuss him with that in mind. Of San Francisco’s top pitching prospects, only a handful are left-handed, and even fewer than that project as bullpen arms. San Francisco isn’t afraid to bring up and utilize its young talent anywhere on the field, but the bullpen also contains several free agents signings.
Bostic’s best shot to play may be getting traded elsewhere, even though the only prime prospect in the Giants’ organization is a shortstop. By the time he gets to the MLB level, however, things could be radically different in the Giants’ organization since manager Bruce Bochy gets closer to retirement with each passing season. Bochy prefers to have strike-throwers with low walk rates in his bullpen, which is the polar opposite of Bostic’s feast-or-famine approach.
According to KATOH, Bostic—whose control issues kept his outstanding three-pitch repertoire from reaching its potential at Clemson—has a 15 percent shot to reach the big leagues and is projected to be worth only 0.1 win by age 27. If the Giants can help him put some of his bloated numbers from college in the past, Bostic could find the needle pointing increasingly upward as he rises through the ranks.
SS Eli White, Oakland Athletics (11th Round, 322nd Overall)
White faces a climb that is steeper than most of Clemson’s prospects with big league aspirations. However, he is doing it for an organization that loves developing an abundance of up-the-middle talent, especially on defense. Still, the glut of talented options here will make it difficult for him to make it very far over the next couple of seasons.
Oakland’s top prospect is shortstop Franklin Barreto, a consensus top-35 prospect in all of baseball that is considered to be one of the top ten at his position. Three of the Athletics’ next six prospects, according to MLB.com, are all shortstops. All of these players are expected to reach the big league club in either 2017 or 2018—realistically, one or more of them could be trade bait should Oakland contend at any point between now and then—meaning White could be part of the next wave of middle infielders that comes after them.
Ironically, one of these potential roadblocks is Chad Pinder, brother of Chase and a second-round pick in 2013 currently playing for AAA Nashville. All of these prospects are blocked by Marcus Semien, who has put up big numbers for Oakland as the everyday option at shortstop but is arguably the worst fielder in the league among his peers.
KATOH isn’t bullish on White at all, putting his chances of reaching the big leagues at six percent and setting his projected WAR at an unflattering 0.0. This is undoubtedly due to his propensity to commit errors without accompanying power at the plate, a combination that will almost assuredly cause a player’s value to plummet on paper.
3B Weston Wilson, Milwaukee Brewers (17th Round, 501st Overall)
Of every player on this list, barring a trade or significant injury, I would give Wilson the best odds of making it to the big leagues quickest. After moving to second base for the Tigers in 2016, the Brewers took him as a third baseman. This means he will begin his professional career at a more familiar spot on the diamond, albeit one that carries a bit of baggage along with it.
Wilson’s frame and skill set appear conducive to third base, although he did have some issues defensively during his first two collegiate seasons. Moving back could end up being a blessing, though, since the Brewers—otherwise a well-stocked club in the minor leagues—have very few valuable commodities at the hot corner. In fact, of their top 30 prospects on MLB.com’s list, only one is listed as a third baseman.
The big league starter is Aaron Hill, who is 34 years old and on the decline, and his backup is replacement-level free agent Hernan Perez. Neither is a long-term option. In the minor leagues, the top third base option is former Red Sox infielder Will Middlebrooks, but not much else exists. This means Wilson could ascend quickly unless a Ryan Braun trade—possible but not imminent—brings in a group of prospects that could block him.
Wilson has an 11 percent shot to reach the big leagues with a projected WAR of 0.1, according to KATOH. There are some similarities between Wilson and Braun in terms of plate approach and frame that might have drawn the Brewers to him, though it is highly unlikely Wilson would match Braun’s stellar career in Milwaukee as the fifth overall pick in the 2005 draft.
RHP Clate Schmidt, Detroit Tigers (20th Round, 593rd Overall)
Just getting to this point has to be considered a victory for Schmidt. After battling cancer and—to a lesser degree—inconsistency, he was drafted by an organization that loves to develop its prospects as trade chips. That makes Schmidt’s career arc a bit iffy, although KATOH gives him only a two percent chance of making the big leagues.
In MLB.com’s list, 11 of Detroit’s 13 top pitching prospects are right-handers. In fact, even outside of that top tier of prospects, the Tigers’ entire minor league apparatus is righty-heavy. The guys that do have promising futures almost all have a long way to go to get to the big leagues, but not one single current member of the Tigers’ major league pitching staff was drafted by the franchise.
Schmidt likely profiles as a bullpen arm, perhaps as a long reliever and spot starter given his history as a guy who can provide some length to a pitching staff. The Tigers rarely trade for prospects, so he will probably play with many of the same teammates until he is inevitably dealt in a package for a bigger fish.