ESPN released its College Football Playoff Predictor on Wednesday, and to no one’s surprise Clemson and Alabama were listed one and two as teams with the best shot to make the CFP.
Clemson heads up the list with an 83 percent chance, while Alabama rolls in with a 71 percent chance. Both teams also have the best chance, according to ESPN’s sports analytics, to reach the championship game. The Tigers have a 58 percent chance, while the Tide has a 47 percent chance.
According to Seth Walder, ESPN’s sports analytics writer, Clemson has the best chance to make the playoffs of any team the Playoff Predictor has spit out in the six-year history of the CFP and perhaps in the future, too.
“For an objective model like this, this is outrageously high,” he said on the Paul Finebaum Show Wednesday. “I mean, I think, when we look at this, I am not sure if we are sitting here talking over the next ten years in the preseason, we are going to have a team as high in the preseason to make the playoff as we do Clemson right now.”
Walder says the Tigers have such a high percentage because everything sets up perfectly for the Tigers, despite the fact Clemson has to replace eight starters on defense, including its entire front four. The CFP guru says the Tigers are an almost lock to make the playoff because of their easy schedule.
“We have a defending national champion, who everyone agrees, I think, is going to be great again, is bringing back their most important player in Trevor Lawrence and the schedule is so soft,” he said. “We are talking about one of the easiest schedules among Power 5 teams.
“They are two-touchdown favorites over every single opponent that they have on their schedule. Their toughest game is at South Carolina, their last game of the regular season.”
He then adds, “For context, Alabama also plays at South Carolina. It is their fifth toughest game.”
So, let me get this straight. Texas A&M is considered one of Alabama’s toughest games and is ranked higher on Alabama’s schedule of toughest opponents than South Carolina, yet the Gamecocks are ranked higher on Clemson’s schedule that A&M?
Am I missing something?
Did Walder just totally forget about Texas A&M coming to Clemson on Sept. 7? The Aggies are considered one of the top contenders to the Crimson Tide in the SEC West this year, especially considering they return their quarterback and several of their top playmakers on offense and defense from last year’s 9-4 team that finished tied for second in the SEC West.
I understand Alabama has to go to A&M, while the Aggies come to Clemson. However, the competition is the same. The players are the same. The coaches are the same. The venue, though it can be a factor, does not make that much of a difference when comparing a team like A&M’s to South Carolina’s.
To me A&M is Clemson’s toughest opponent because it is the most veteran team the Tigers will face all year, plus it has a national championship winning head coach on the sideline in Jimbo Fisher. As much as Walder disrespected Clemson’s schedule, in my opinion he disrespected the Aggies even more by saying South Carolina was a tougher game.
This is not the first time ESPN has taken a shot at the Tigers’ schedule. The four-letter network did it several times leading up to the playoff last year, only to have their experts eat crow when Clemson knocked off mighty Alabama, 44-16, in the national championship game.
The Tigers also beat undefeated Notre Dame, 30-3, in the semifinals at the Cotton Bowl and finished the year 3-0 against the mighty SEC for the second time in three seasons.
Also, as much slack Clemson has received over it is schedule the last three years. No one has ever stopped and looked at it once the dust has settled. In the last three years, Clemson’s strength of schedule ranks No. 1 in the country based on opponents win percentage.
Granted, the ACC appears to be weak this year. I don’t think anyone will argue that. But how many Power 5 schools schedule home-and-home non-conference series like Clemson does? The Tigers have not been afraid to go on the road and play an SEC opponent like Texas A&M, Auburn or Georgia.
Alabama does not do it. The Crimson Tide has not played a non-conference Power 5 foe in a true road game since 2011. The Tide is the only Power 5 team that has not played a single road non-conference road game since the CFP began.
Since 2011, and not counting its annual rivalry game with South Carolina, Clemson has played at Georgia, at Auburn and at Texas A&M. Next year, Clemson will play at Notre Dame and will do it again in 2022. They are also scheduled to play at LSU in 2026.
So, keep taking shots at Clemson’s schedule. Odds are, the Tigers will prove that once again they can’t control who they play, they’ll just do what they always do. They’ll beat whoever is in front of them, even if its mighty Alabama of another SEC opponent.