NCAA Baseball Tournament Projections (May 25)
By: trey-mccurry May 25, 2019

As Clemson awaits a potential postseason bid, The Clemson Insider releases our projections for the 2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament.

 

For a quick review, the field is made up of 64 teams split into 16 regional sites. The 64 teams consist of 31 automatic bids and 33 at-large selections.

We will break the bracket down into hosts, one-bid leagues, potential one-bid leagues, in the field, and then the bubble. Check back each day as we update the bubble and projections as conference tournament progress before releasing our entire field (with locations) on Monday morning. 

Hosts (16 teams)
Arkansas East Carolina Georgia Georgia Tech
Louisville LSU Mississippi State NC State
North Carolina Oklahoma State Oregon State Stanford
Texas Tech UCLA Vanderbilt West Virginia
Teams in BOLD have won the automatic bid.

 

One-Bid Leagues (17 teams)
America East Atlantic 10 Big South Colonial
Horizon Harvard MAAC MAC
Florida A&M Northeast Ohio Valley Army
SoCon Southland Summit Southern
WAC
Teams in BOLD have won the automatic bid.

 

Potential One-Bid Leagues (5 teams)
Atlantic Sun Stetson (winners bracket)
Liberty (in losers bracket/potential at-large team)
Big East Creighton (winners bracket/at-large lock)
Mountain West Fresno State (winners bracket/likely at-large team)
Sun Belt Georgia Southern (winners bracket)
Texas State (eliminated/potential at-large team)
West Coast Loyola Marymount (winners bracket)
BYU (eliminated/potential at-large team)

 

In The Field (18 teams)
Arizona State Auburn Baylor California
Connecticut Dallas Baptist Florida Atlantic Illinois
Illinois State Indiana Indiana State Miami (FL)
Michigan Nebraska Ole Miss Tennessee
Texas A&M UC Santa Barbara
Teams in BOLD have won the automatic bid.

 

Bubble IN (8 spots)
Team Record Conf RPI SOS Road Q1 Q2
57 Florida State 36-21 18-14 49 57 7-10 9-11 6-7
58 Duke 31-25 16-16 44 20 10-9 9-15 6-6
59 Clemson 34-24 16-16 38 25 10-11 8-13 12-5
60 Florida 33-24 13-18 26 2 6-12 16-20 5-1
61 UCF 36-21 13-14 41 50 11-8 8-9 9-6
62 BYU 36-17 19-11 45 132 15-9 0-2 12-10
63 Houston 32-24 12-14 43 32 12-8 8-11 8-5
64 Missouri 34-22-1 13-17-1 30 26 11-12-1 10-17-1 4-0

 

Bubble OUT (8 teams)
Team Record Conf RPI SOS Road Q1 Q2
65 Arizona 31-24 14-14 46 35 9-14 3-16 12-2
66 Texas State 36-20 20-12 51 87 14-8 4-4 8-5
67 Southern Miss 36-19 22-10 52 96 11-10 3-5 6-2
68 Liberty 39-19 17-10 47 117 12-13 4-3 5-6
69 UC Irvine 36-17 16-7 55 160 15-12 0-5 7-6
70 Boston College 31-26 14-18 53 47 15-13 10-15 5-5
71 Wake Forest 31-26 15-17 54 40 9-15 9-14 5-5
72 Oklahoma 33-23 11-15 42 53 15-11 4-12 14-6

 

Bubble Notes
Compared to most years there is an extremely soft bubble which means one win or loss could shift a team multiple spots as the metrics change.
Key components that the selection committee will look at include: Conference Record, RPI, SOS (Strength of Schedule), Road Record, Quad 1 records (teams ranked 1-50), and Quad 2 records (teams ranked 51-100). All metrics are as of 8:00AM on Saturday, May 25.
Duke, Florida, Florida State, Houston, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas State, and Wake Forest have completed their seasons.
Boston College faces North Carolina in a must-win game in the ACC Semifinals. 
Arizona and UC Irvine play in conferences that do not hold tournaments so they will be completing their seasons with three-game series this weekend.
Southern Miss is in the winner’s bracket of the C-USA Tournament and most likely needs at least one more win to make the field.
Michigan, Liberty, and UCF are each in the losers brackets of their respective conference tournaments. Michigan and UCF most likely need one more win to make the field, while Liberty would need to win at least two games.