SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — In one of the most anticipated games of the College Football Playoff era, No. 3 Clemson plays No. 2 Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl today at 8 p.m. with a trip to the national championship game on the line.
The winner will play the winner of the Peach Bowl in Atlanta between LSU and Oklahoma, which will be played earlier in the day.
Who has the edge?
Clemson’s wide receivers vs. Ohio State’s safeties: This is the number one matchup in this game because Ohio State’s only weakness on the field is at the safety and strongside linebacker/nickelback positions. Brendon White was exposed in both the Michigan and Wisconsin games. Look for Clemson to possibly ploy a similar tragedy it did against South Carolina by moving Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross to the slots or finding creative ways to get them to the middle of the field so they can have the mismatches they want. Advantage: Clemson
Clemson’s Braden Galloway vs. Ohio State’s safeties and linebackers: Galloway could be the X-Factor in this game simply because no one has seen him play in a game since last year’s ACC Championship Game. After serving his one-year suspension by the NCAA, Galloway returns to Clemson hoping to create mismatches against the Ohio State defense, especially against their linebackers. Galloway is big, strong, physical and athletic and he can play and run routes like a wide receiver. He has been anxious to prove what he can do, and he’ll get his chance today. If Galloway is a part of the game plan and he executes, then Clemson will win this matchup all night long. Advantage: Clemson
Clemson’s offensive line vs. Ohio State’s defensive front: Ohio State defensive end Chase Young leads the country in sacks with 16.5 and is fourth in tackles for loss with 21. But the Buckeyes are more than just about Young on the defensive line. Tyreke Smith and Zach Harrison are as good as one can be at defensive end, while defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton is a train wrecker inside. The Buckeyes lead the country with 51 sacks and are also No. 1 in tackles for loss with 119. Opponents are averaging just 2.6 yards per carry. On the other side, Clemson is 6th in sacks allowed with 13 and the Tigers have allowed just 59 tackles behind the line of scrimmage all year. Clemson leads the nation with 6.5 yards per carry average. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney calls this matchup “Must See TV.” Advantage: Ohio State
Brent Venables vs. Ryan Day: Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables is considered the best defensive player caller in the nation, especially with way he calls blitzes and tries to confuse quarterbacks with all the different looks he shows in the secondary. Clemson leads the nation in scoring, total and passing defense. Ohio State head coach Ryan Day is considered the best play caller in the country. The Buckeyes lead the country in scoring offense and their offense ranks in the top 10 in total offense and rushing offense. Today, both coaches will begin their chess match, but coaching on this stage before and playing with a very experienced defensive secondary, Venables gets a little bit of an edge. Advantage: Clemson
Clemson secondary vs. Justin Fields: How healthy is Justin Fields’ left knee? He says he is 85 percent. That was on Tuesday. But Clemson’s defense is one of the best in the country and actually leads the nation in most defensive passing categories. Fields throws a beautiful deep ball and is very good at getting the football to his wideouts in man coverage. However, Fields also struggles when teams play more zone on him and no one plays zone defense more than Clemson. Advantage: Clemson
Clemson’s run defense vs. Ohio State’s rushing offense: Ohio State is one of the best rushing offenses in the country. Led by J.K. Dobbins, the Buckeyes are averaging 272 yards a game. Dobbins, an All-American, has already rushed for 1,829 yards and scored 20 touchdowns this season. Quarterback Justin Fields’ legs are still a big question, though. Can he run the ball affectively and do it well enough to keep Clemson’s defensive end Xavier Thomas honest and from breaking down on Dobbins? Clemson’s rushing defense has had its moments this year. The young group has grown up this year, but they are still considered the weak link on the Tigers’ defense. Today will be their toughest test to date. Advantage: Ohio State
Bottom line: I have gone back and forth with this pick all week. I see areas where the Buckeyes can exploit Clemson on offense and defense, especially at the line of scrimmage. However, Ohio State has not seen the level of team speed of Clemson’s caliber anywhere in the Big Ten. The bases of my pick comes off the matchup where I think the Tigers can win and win often. Though the Buckeyes are extremely talented at the corner positions, their weakness on defense lies with their safeties where Clemson will have an opportunity to make plays with Tee Higgins, Justin Ross and Amari Rodgers.
Score prediction: Clemson 37, Ohio State 33