Clemson (4-3, 3-2 ACC) will return home for the first time since early October today for a division matchup with Florida State (3-4, 2-2). Kickoff from Memorial Field is set for 3:30 p.m. The game will be televised by ESPN.
Clemson’s offense vs. Florida State’s defense: Florida State is yielding 26.4 points per game. But how the opposition is performing defensively simply hasn’t mattered for a Clemson offense that’s stuck in a rut.
FSU will be the second scoring defense ranked in the bottom half of the league that the Tigers have seen this season. The other one was Georgia Tech, which is allowing nearly 31 points on average. Clemson scored 14 against the Yellow Jackets.
Clemson has yet to reach 20 points in regulation against an FBS team, and that’s looking more and more impenetrable by the week. And it’s the Tigers doing as much harm to themselves with the same self-inficted issues (drops and missed blocking assignments among them) popping up again and again.
Then there’s the inconsistent play from quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, which seemed to create an open competition this past week after he was benched for a couple of series for Taisun Phommachanh following a two-interception performance against Pitt. Uiagalelei was still listed as QB1 on Clemson’s updated depth chart earlier this week, but could Phommachanh, the better pure runner of the two, see his role increase this week?
It’s an even more pertinent question considering Clemson seems to have found some rhythm running the ball of late, averaging 170 rushing yards over the last three games. The Tigers will also be without leading rusher Kobe Pace (COVID-19 protocols) today, so that could be even more reason to get Phommachanh more involved.
But until the Tigers start getting out of their own way, it’s hard to envision their level of production changing. Advantage: Florida State
Clemson’s defense vs. Florida State’s offense: Clemson faced arguably the best offense it will see all season last week at Pitt and held the Panthers to less than half of their season scoring average (though Pitt helped by taking a knee late instead of trying to tack on more points). That happened with Pitt primarily moving the ball through the air, which won’t be the Tigers’ primary concern this week.
Florida State comes into this one averaging the 13th-most rushing yards nationally (230.3 per game), and the Seminoles do it with a three-headed monster. Running backs Jashaun Corbin and Treshaun Ward are each averaging over 7 yards per carry while quarterback Jordan Travis (5.2 average on 66 carries) is equally as likely to pull the down and run with. That’s if the Seminoles aren’t already calling his number on a designed run.
Clemson’s strength is stopping the run. Outside of the first half at Syracuse, the Tigers haven’t been gashed on the ground. And getting back defensive tackle Tyler Davis, who won’t be on a pitch count this week after making his return from bicep surgery last week, should only help bolster a run defense ranked 29th nationally (120 yards per game).
Travis hasn’t been bad throwing the ball (62.9% completion rate), but he’s only been asked to throw it 83 times in seven games. You can bet Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables will do everything he can to take away FSU’s strength and force Travis to beat the Tigers from the pocket, which would favor Clemson. Advantage: Clemson
Special teams: B.T. Potter and Will Spiers continue to be solid for Clemson in the kicking and punting departments, respectively. Potter is now 7 of 8 field goals this season. Will Brown hasn’t been anything special in the punt return game since taking over for the injured Will Taylor early in the season (five returns for 13 yards), but he hasn’t muffed any punts either.
Meanwhile, Florida State has solid punter in Alex Mastromanno, who’s capable of flipping the field at 44 yards per punt. Ryan Fitzgerald, who is 6 of 8 on field goals, has experienced the gamut of emotions, missing a late kick in FSU’s season-opening loss to Notre Dame before coming back to walk off the Seminoles’ win over Syracuse at the buzzer on Oct. 2. Advantage: Clemson
Bottom line: Clemson’s offense is what it is at this point, but Florida State (like most teams against the Tigers’ defense) isn’t likely to come close to reaching its season scoring average (31 points per game). In what should be yet another white-knuckler for the Tigers, home-field advantage could make all the difference.
Prediction: Clemson 19, Florida State 16
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