It’s crunch time for Clemson’s men’s basketball team.
The Tigers enter their game at North Carolina on Saturday still leading the ACC pack, though they’re now tied for that distinction with Virginia and Pitt after falling to Miami at home last weekend. The Tigers have seven games remaining in their quest to capture what would be only the second regular-season conference championship in program history.
That won’t be the only bit of drama following Clemson over the next three weeks.
The Tigers are still widely projected to receive an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament as of today. But after two straight losses – and with three combined Quad 3 and Quad 4 losses smudging the postseason resume – Clemson’s margin for error is fading. More wins would certainly help in that regard. So would avoiding additional bad losses.
Which games will be the toughest for the Tigers as they head down the stretch toward March? The Clemson Insider is taking a stab at ranking the difficulty of their remaining schedule based on the caliber of opponent, matchups and game location. The games are listed in descending order starting with the most difficult:
Virginia
When: Feb. 28
Where: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville
Why: Forget the fact this is one of three Quad 1 road games left. This is the biggest challenge left on the Tigers’ regular-season slate. Virginia, ranked eighth nationally, is a typical Tony Bennett team that makes it hard to effectively run offense and score. The Cavaliers are allowing the 10th-fewest points in Division I (60.2 per game) and rank third in the ACC in field-goal percentage defense. And with four players averaging double figures, Virginia scores it enough to lead the conference in scoring margin (plus-9.6 points per game). No team has cracked the 70-point barrier against Virginia at home this season, and only one team – No. 2 Houston – has beaten the Cavaliers in their own building.
NC State
When: Feb. 25
Where: PNC Arena, Raleigh
Why: Virginia cooled NC State off a bit earlier this week, but the 22nd-ranked Wolfpack have been one of ACC’s hottest teams in league play. NC State is the second-highest scoring team in the conference, and while the Wolfpack aren’t a lockdown defensive team in the halfcourt, they’re one of the more active teams in the country on that end of the floor. NC State leads the ACC in steals and turnover margin and is averaging nearly five blocks per game, good for second in the league. It’s all helped the Wolfpack post the second-highest scoring margin in the league and a 13-1 record at home so far.
UNC
When: Saturday
Where: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill
Why: Walking into the home of the reigning national runner-up, much less one of the more difficult venues in the ACC, is always a tall task when trying to win on the road. And UNC still has its share of blue-chip talent on second-year coach Hubert Davis’ roster, most notably star big Armando Bacot, who’s averaging a double-double (17.5 points, 11.3 rebounds) as the ACC’s leading rebounder. Yet with nine losses already, this isn’t a prolific UNC team, particularly defensively (72.2 points allowed per game). But the Tar Heels are 10-1 at home, which speaks to the difficulty of winning at the Dean Dome, something Clemson was able to do its last time there in 2020.
Syracuse
When: Feb. 22
Where: Littlejohn Coliseum
Why: With double-digit losses already and a NET rankings in the 90s, Syracuse almost certainly won’t be playing in the NCAA Tournament unless it wins the ACC Tournament next month in Greensboro. Still, Jim Boeheim’s team is a dangerous one. The Orange aren’t great defensively (70.3 points allowed per game) while rebounding has been an issue all season – their 66.7% defensive rebounding rate is the worst in the league – but Syracuse is top 5 in the ACC in points, field-goal percentage and steals. The Orange also block more shots than anybody in the conference (5.4 per game). That’s helped Syracuse win five road games so far. Clemson’s lost just once in its own building, but this is setting up as a Quad 3 game the Tigers better not overlook.
Florida State
When: Feb. 15
Where: Littlejohn Coliseum
Why: Seemingly year in and year out, Leonard Hamilton’s team is long and athletic enough to put a scare into anyone. See Clemson’s one-point escape from Tallahassee in the teams’ first meeting this season as proof. FSU also beat Pitt on the road with the insertion of touted freshman Baba Miller into the lineup recently giving the Seminoles a boost. But defense is a glaring issue for the Seminoles, who are yielding the second-most points in the league. Clemson ranks in the top 5 in the league in 3-point shooting percentage and overall shooting percentage and is also the top free-throw shooting team in the conference, so the Tigers should be able to score enough at home.
Notre Dame
When: March 4
Where: Littlejohn Coliseum
Why: It’s been a struggle all season for the Fighting Irish in Mike Brey’s final season at the helm. Notre Dame has four double-digit scorers, but it’s won just two ACC games primarily because of its defense. Only Louisville’s field-goal percentage defense is worse than Notre Dame’s in the ACC. As a result, Notre Dame has yet to win on the road this season. For many of the same reasons as its matchup with Florida State, Clemson ought to be able to keep it that way.
Louisville
When: Feb. 18
Where: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville
Why: With just one conference win to this point and three overall, Louisville is arguably the worst high-major team in college basketball this season. Clemson, which already beat the Cardinals at home last month, simply can’t afford to lose this one if the Tigers hope to be playing meaningful games in March.
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