If men’s college basketball pundits are to be believed, Clemson still has work to do.
Head coach Brad Brownell and his team don’t necessarily disagree.
“We’ve got a job to do,” veteran forward Hunter Tyson said following the Tigers’ rout of Notre Dame over the weekend.
That kind of talk is in reference to Clemson’s NCAA Tournament hopes. At 61 in the NET rankings, the Tigers find themselves squarely on the bubble with a body of work that features some good (seven of their 22 wins against the top two quadrants; four Quad 1 victories) and some bad (four losses against the bottom two quadrants).
With few bracket projections including Clemson in the tournament at this point – ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Tigers the closest to making the 68-team field as his second team out as of Monday morning – the popular belief is that the Tigers need at least one win, maybe two, in this week’s ACC Tournament to feel realistic about its chances come Selection Sunday. Of course, Clemson can automatically punch its own ticket by cutting down the nets in Greensboro.
“We probably have to win (in the ACC Tournament) is what it looks like and what people tell us,” Brownell said.
In order to do that, the Tigers need to win three games in three days after earning the No. 3 seed and a double bye into Thursday’s quarterfinals. At the very least, a closer look at Clemson’s draw in the tournament reveals that improving its at-large odds is doable.
The Tigers are awaiting either NC State, Notre Dame or Virginia Tech in the quarterfinals, teams they’re 5-0 against so far this season. Clemson is fresh off a 23-point beatdown of Notre Dame two days ago and swept Virginia Tech during the regular season. NC State, the tournament’s 6 seed, is the highest potential seed Clemson could face in its opener. Yet the Tigers have bludgeoned the Wolfpack this season, winning both of their previous matchups by a combined 39 points.
Should Clemson advance to Friday’s semifinals, the Tigers would likely get a rematch against either Virginia or North Carolina. That’s assuming a double-digit seed in Boston College or Louisville, who will meet in an opening-round game Tuesday, doesn’t upset the seventh-seeded Tar Heels on Wednesday.
The second-seeded Cavaliers are awaiting one of those three teams in the quarterfinals. Clemson dropped its games against Virginia and UNC during the regular season, though each loss was on the road and happened in varying fashions. Despite shooting just 31% from 3-point range, Clemson only lost by seven at Virginia. The Tigers’ visit to Chapel Hill was a different story as the Tar Heels got hot inside the Dean Dome and handed Clemson a 20-point loss, its largest margin of defeat this season.
Advancing to Saturday’s championship game would require Clemson to either exact revenge against one of those two teams or take care of business against a double-digit seed. If that was to happen, a potential matchup with top-seeded Miami or Duke from the other side of the bracket would be waiting.
Miami and Duke would face off in Friday’s other semifinal should those teams advance that far, but Duke would first have to get past Pitt, Georgia Tech or Florida State in its quarterfinal matchup. Miami will get either Syracuse or Wake Forest in its tournament opener Thursday. Clemson split with Miami and Duke during the regular season, beating the Blue Devils by eight at home and falling by four to Miami at home.
The good news for Clemson is that if the tournament goes chalk throughout, the Tigers will get a Quad 1 opportunity each round along the way since games against top-50 NET teams on a neutral court fall into that category. NC State enters the tournament at 41 in the NET, Virginia sits at 30, and Miami (35) and Duke (25) are each in the top 35. Even if Clemson was to face UNC (49) instead of Virginia in the semifinals, that would also be a shot at another Quad 1 victory.
It’s a week full of opportunity for the Tigers – and one they need to take advantage of at least to some extent to give themselves a chance to play more meaningful games in March.